Reason for firing: North had nothing to lose and everything to gain.
1) Threats of Sanctions: All talk without teeth. The US, Japan (backed by England) can’t make internal sanctions work through UN. Russia and China will veto it. North knew this going into the fiasco.
2) Threat to Japanese Reinforced: The Missile Defense System is still not developed
3) Threat to South Reinforced: Though there is the ongoing “you are my brother” routine between North and South, the idea that if the South stops giving the North blackmail money, it could turn the weapons on the South and again threaten to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire.” Underlying all the b.s., the SCUD-C launches reinforce this point.
4) Test Results: Even with the failure, the North gained knowledge from the failure and can improve on the design. With no fear of reprisal, why not go ahead with the tests?kalaniat lost nomad
これに対して
1. Sanctions, there is little the US can do, but Japan accounts for a considerable ammount of the cash flowing into North Korea from the pro-North Koreans living there and Japan can cut it off, not to mention the Europeans who do trade with NK, who are reconsidering their positions. Considering the cash-strapped nature of NK today, even a little hurts alot
this only strengthens the Japanes far right position.
The failure does affect NK missile sales,
5. So to wrap up…North Korea launches and:
They lose immediate rice and fertilizer from the South. (may get it back)
They lose contact/trade with Japan (all freighters turned around)
They lose future missile sales for their junk long range missile.
They security council is discussing sanctions, not aid.
China and Russia the two biggest NK promotors have rejected the tests.Pavlov3 at lost nomad
ついでに日本側の反応としてテポドン音頭を紹介します。（試聴できます）
さあさあみなさん張り切ってまいりましょう。
はああ～あそれっ！
テポドンテポドン テポドンドン よいしょっ！
ミサイル発射 テポドンドン
ミサイル発射 用意 ドン ドンって？！
あっそれ！
テポドンテポドン テポドンドン よいっしょ
ミサイル発射 テポドンドン スカッド（scud)
ミサイル発射５秒前 ４，３，２，１ ドン
ドンって？？
あそれ！テポドンテポドン テポドンドン やめって！
ミサイル発射 テポドンテポドン テポドンドン
ドッカ～ン!!!
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